How far would you go to deflect allegations of your involvement in state-level corruption, or ‘state capture’?
If you or your co-accused were in control of a media empire, would you harness that empire to support a counter-narrative that seeks to undermine your enemies?
Would you recruit a radical political movement to help create a straw bogeyman through a mix of Twitter and fake news that shifts attention away from your own alleged crimes?
Fake news is big business these days after all. Some even credit Donald Trump’s win to the proliferation of misleading news and South Africa is not immune to the phenomenon either, as you can read here and here.
I will unpack some of the patterns that I’ve observed in recent Twitter data that seem to imply that the Gupta family-owned media companies, ANN7 and The New Age, might be working with Andile Mngxitima's Black First Land First (shortened to °‘BLF’ for some grammar-defying reason*) organization to embed a pro-Gupta, pro-Zuma narrative in our national discourse that runs counter to the current state capture discussions taking place.
At the very least, the collected Twitter data analysed shows that their narratives are uncannily aligned and stand in isolation to the rest of South Africans on Twitter, regardless of political allegiance. In addition, we know that there is some cross-pollination of individuals between the Gupta and BLF camps through direct working relationships. Take a look at the evidence below and decide for yourself how deep the rabbit hole goes.
How would you go about deflecting perceptions and allegations about your alleged involvement in state-level corruption, or ‘state capture’?
I’ve posted a few times (see posts here, hereand here) about the weird Gupta-BLF community that has been putting out pro-Zuma, anti-Pravin Gordhan/Thuli Madonsela/Mcebisi Jonas messaging and that attempts to shift the narrative away from the activities of President Zuma and the Guptas to the role of “white monopoly capital” in “capturing” our state. I’ve long had the suspicion that that community’s activity is being boosted by a ‘botnet’ of fake Twitter accounts that work in unison to amplify their message, and I have been collecting data to investigate this. It turns out though that I wasn’t the only one who noticed the weird behaviour of some of the accounts in this community. You can read in the Sowetan and Daily Maverick about how local digital sleuths uncovered a botnet of the fake accounts in this community. Rather than throw out the work that I’d done already, I thought that I’d further elaborate on their research to paint a more complete picture of the botnet’s activities.
The Gupta-BLF disinformation ecosystem Before we go any further, let’s take a step back and remind ourselves of the greater political milieu that this community of fake accounts is trying to inject its narrative into. Here’s a reminder of the main communities evident in the 180,000 tweets about the Public Protector that I analysed in my earlier post here. Take note of the orange community labeled Gupta media & Black First Land First (BLF):
Interaction network showing the various communities of Twitter users discussing the Public Protector (from a previous post here).
I pointed out in my previous post that, despite coming from a variety of different political backgrounds, the various communities discussing the Public Protector all voiced unanimous praise for former Public Protector, Thuli Madonsela, and skepticism towards newly installed Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane. That is, except for one community: what I’d labeled the _Gupta media & Black First Land First _community because it contained the Gupta-owned ANN7 satellite news channel and The New Age newspaper accounts along with the official accounts of the BLF and its leaders. This is what that community looked like in that dataset when isolated:
A close-up of the Gupta-BLF community from the Public Protector dataset. Some names have been blurred for privacy reasons.
Our community detection algorithms identified the Gupta media and BLF accounts as belonging to the same community because those accounts interact more with each other than with other groups in the data: BLF members, for example, retweet ANN7 and The New Age more than other news sources, and the BLF leader, Andile Mngxitama, is regularly invited on as an “expert commentator” on ANN7.
The community stood at odds with the rest of South African Twitter because the content it shares and the narrative that it buys into stands in stark opposition to pretty much the rest of South African Twitter who, even if they sit on opposite sides of the socialist-neo-liberal divide, still broadly agree on a few things: the need to protect our institutions and hold government accountable. Those ideals don’t seem to hold as much appeal for the Gupta-BLF community. For example, the most retweeted content in that community relating to the past and present Public Protectors subtly cast doubt on the morals and ethics of Madonsela while praising Mkhwebane:
Indeed, this community uses Twitter to share content that pushes a pro-Zuma, pro-Gupta message, and a particular sub-group within it also appears to be using a network of fake accounts, or a ‘botnet’, to amplify this narrative in an effort to embed it into the broader South African zeitgeist. The botnet is intertwined with the BLF party’s accounts in particular. The BLF appears to have created an ecosystem of accounts on Twitter that espouse a pro-Zuma, pro-Gupta and anti-Gordhan/Madonsela/state capture report narrative.
Some of the content coming out of this ecosystem is real, organic discussion generated by human users that likely really believe this narrative but some of it also appears to be generated and amplified by fake accounts acting as a coordinated botnet. The botnet appears to use the BLF’s own ‘news’ websites as touchpoints for the content that it pushes. I am aware of at least two BLF-affiliated websites that post ‘news’ content that is then shared via the botnet (see this tweet from a fake account for example): Black Opinion operates as a news site and the personal blog of BLF leader, Andile Mngxitama, and Uncensored Opinion seems to act similarly as a mouthpiece for writer and activist, Pinky Khoabane. Here are a few examples of the type of content that they generate and that gets shared via the botnet along with additional commentary:
It's a sign blacks must know Their place. And whites don't need law to teach us.#HandsOffBrianMolefe— abraham (@abrahamcpt19) November 11, 2016
So there you have it: there is a single community on Twitter that pushes a counter-narrative that differs from all other communities on Twitter. This community includes prominent accounts such as those of the Gupta media properties, ANN7 and The New Age, as well as the Black First Land First (BLF) party. The BLF has created multiple news sites that publish pro-Gupta, pro-Zuma articles of dubious veracity.
These articles get shared on Twitter via a network of fake accounts. In addition, these fake Twitter accounts also push a narrative around ‘white monopoly capital’ as the real source of ‘state capture’. Finally, some of the content that is shared by the botnet originates from the personal ‘news’ websites of BLF leader, Andile Mngxitama (Black Opinion) and writer-activist, Pinky Khoabane (Uncensored Opinion). In addition, we can see from the ego networks that they have both further interacted with these fake accounts on Twitter.
What does one make of this? Clearly, the BLF is pushing a narrative that seeks to undermine the current state capture discussions which are so critical of the Guptas and President Zuma, and they are attempting to shift attention to white monopoly capital instead. Given that the BLF has close ties to the Gupta media houses through its leader, Andile Mngxitama, that they are both aligned on their messaging, and that our algorithms identify them as belonging to the same community, is this enough to infer that they are working to working together to undermine their enemies and are using any technological means at their disposal to do so?